Week of 7-15-12

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Week of 7-15-12

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Mon Jul 16, 2012 5:08 pm

ES made it to 1352.50 on a spike up. Higher prices are not required to complete the current Pattern however, prices as high as INX 1370 would reveal a very nice, textbook "ABC-X-ABC" affair.

We will continue to hold ES long positions bcause we have profits but we are not adding any more and we probably will stop out on prices below ES 1345.
1sp_7-16.GIF
INX and ES 120 minute bars
2sp_7-16.GIF
INX 60 minute bars and ES 10 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 7-15-12

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:23 pm

Erratic, dangerous and confusing, INX and ES look as though they created an expanding triangle for a minor "B" wave within the on going "C". We stopped out of our long ES positions. We are now just standing aside for an opportunity to sell the end of the "C".

The nature of the move is such that prices anywhere from 1362 to 1385 would satisfy the current pattern. That is too large of a range for us to take on short positions without first seeing a four bar reversal on the hourly chart and better yet, an hourly four bar reversal after July 18 that is the New Moon phase. Rallies into New Moons statistically turn the broad stock indices lower.
1sp_7-17.GIF
INX and ES 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 7-15-12

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Wed Jul 18, 2012 4:02 pm

Well, it took long enough but we are here. 1,'

INX is working on 1370 and ES on 1365. We can expect a turn here but we certainly will not enter new short positions until we get a clear four bar reversal on the 120 minute chart.

The last turn at these levels took a full 12 trading hours in INX and we are looking for similar action in the current pattern. Today, Wednesday after the close is the New Moon phase so Thursday morning may show the first evidence of a turn lower.
1sp_7-18.GIF
INX 60 minute bars and ES 10 minute bars
harts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 7-15-12

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:47 pm

Momentum, volume and breadth are slowing as ES passed our 1368 target. Prices are currently using the ES 1368 level as support but as of this post, six hours have passed and prices are only moving sideways.

We do not have a four bar reversal on the 60 minute chart so we would still hold longs if we had them but we are also still aware of the New Moon phase of Wednesday evening and of the potential for a reversal from these levels.

One more push to INX 1385 might finish the current "C" wave pattern but current conditions suggest the current INX 1380.39 will hold. Prices much above INX 1385 would suggest that something else is going on and we would have to address that if it happens.
1sp_7-19.GIF
INX 60 minute bars and ES 10 minute bars
2sp_7-19.GIF
INX and ES daily bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 7-15-12

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Fri Jul 20, 2012 5:35 pm

INX topped out with its highest close on the New Moon of late Wednesday. Thursday brought another intraday high of another two handles and the whole topping process took about eleven trading hours rounding over.

We now have the four bars down reversal on the hourly INX bar chart and want to get short in ES with ideas of substantially lower prices to come. The decline should evolve in a five-wave structure possibly beginning with a series of "Ones" and "Twos" before it really gets going.
1sp_7-20.GIF
INX and ES hourly bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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