Week of 3-13-11

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Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:32 pm

Prices are declining as expected. We are now looking for some minor support as Fed time passes from 13:30 to 14:30 New York time but we do not expect any substantial support until prices reach the INX 1278 level.
1sp_3-14.GIF
INX and ES 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Tue Mar 15, 2011 4:49 pm

We obtained our 1278 level plus another 17 handles right on the opening of INX. Of course, the ES futures fell over night.

Now, considering the wave pattern and the current panic atmosphere, we are looking for one more final push to the next Ro7 support projection line at INX 1255. We are also keeping an eye on "Fed time", 13:30 to 14:30 New York time, for announcements and reactions to their normal activities.
1sp_3-15.GIF
INX and ES 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Tue Mar 15, 2011 10:03 pm

An old American saying is "You can fool some of the people some of the time but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time". Is the Fed trying to trick the market? It looks to us as if they succeeded in putting INX prices slightly higher and in the process, pushed the Dollar slightly lower but we do not think their efforts will last.

We are looking for lower INX prices going into the balance of the week.
2sp_3-15.GIF
INX and US Dollar Index 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:52 pm

INX is on track for the 1255 level as proposed in earlier posts. We currently expect wave 5 of 3 to terminate here and begin a wave 4 up of the next larger degree. This move could take prices up enough to be tradable or at least warrant some short covering. However, conditions in Japan or the Middle East may change substantially thru the weekend. This might extend the current wave to the next support zone near INX 1231.
1sp_3-16.GIF
INX and ES 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:21 pm

Fed operations might push INX a little higher from here or not. We are looking for prices to follow one of the arrows shown and then resume the decline, probably into next week.
1sp_3-17.GIF
INX and ES 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:44 pm

INX prices have reached their maximum allowable retracement levels at 1289 for our current interpretation of a fourth wave in progress and remains valid.

We would stand aside on prices much above INX 1290 as that would suggest something else is going on but also view the 1289 level as an objective selling point with a target of INX 1230.

The charts below show the incomplete move on the left and a new "B" wave up idea in progress on the right.
1sp_3-18.GIF
INX 120 minute bars showing two intrepretions
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com
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Re: Week of 3-13-11

Unread postby Richard Carlisle » Sat Mar 19, 2011 12:12 am

As of now, this Friday afternoon after the close, we find the INX "4Th-wave" idea intact. Of course, we will watch world events unfold over the weekend and the ES futures beginning Sunday evening. We still intend to stop out on prices over INX 1290 or the equivalent in ES futures.
2sp_3-18.GIF
INX and ES 30 minute bars
Charts created with http://www.Aspenres.com.
Richard Carlisle
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